“抛售美国”卷土重来！鲍威尔被查引发股汇债“三杀”，金价狂飙破4620美元创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the U.S. Department of Justice has raised concerns about the independence of the central bank, leading to increased risk aversion in the market and a surge in gold prices, which reached a historical high of $4,620 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.4% [1][3][7]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation is part of a broader effort by the Trump administration against the Federal Reserve, which has included attempts to dismiss board member Lisa Cook and calls for aggressive interest rate cuts [3]. - The focus of the investigation is on a $2.5 billion renovation project at the Federal Reserve headquarters and whether Powell misled Congress regarding the scope of the project [3][10]. - Powell has denied the allegations, stating that the threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve's commitment to setting interest rates based on public interest rather than presidential preferences [3][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Financial markets are exhibiting a typical risk-averse trading pattern, with U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar all under pressure, while funds are flowing into precious metals [4]. - U.S. stock index futures have collectively declined, with the S&P 500 futures down 0.5% and the Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.7% [4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by 3 basis points to 4.20%, and the dollar index has dropped by 0.4%, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly three weeks [4]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Multiple institutions believe that the market turmoil is driven by a re-evaluation of the political risks associated with the Federal Reserve [8]. - Analysts from Allspring Global Investments and Fidelity International noted that any event questioning the independence of the Federal Reserve increases uncertainty in U.S. monetary policy, potentially leading to a weaker dollar and rising inflation expectations [8]. - Morgan Stanley and Lombard Odier have indicated that the current situation may lead to greater pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, with expectations of a steeper yield curve due to more aggressive rate cut forecasts [9]. Group 4: Future Implications - The investigation coincides with Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chairman ending in May, with Trump reportedly having selected a successor [11]. - Powell's term as a board member will continue until January 2028, but it remains unclear whether he plans to stay on after this year [11].