鲍威尔被调查：美联储独立性的下降与全球资产定价的波动

Group 1 - The core issue is the criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which raises significant uncertainty regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and the future of U.S. monetary policy [1][2][5] - Powell's tenure has been marked by a shift from gradual interest rate hikes to rate cuts in response to economic signals, including a notable inversion of the yield curve in 2019, which indicated potential recession risks [2][4] - The investigation stems from political dissatisfaction with Powell's management of the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding the renovation costs of the Fed building, which escalated from an initial budget of $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion [2][4] Group 2 - The potential consequences of Powell's investigation include a loss of credibility for the Federal Reserve, as its independence is crucial for effective monetary policy and maintaining market trust [6][8] - Financial markets are reacting negatively to the uncertainty surrounding Powell's position, with significant declines in stock futures and increased volatility expected [8][9] - If a new chairman is appointed who is perceived as politically aligned with the White House, it could undermine the Federal Reserve's independence and lead to a shift in monetary policy that prioritizes short-term political goals over long-term economic stability [11]