Altria's Discount Strategy: Is Basic Brand a Smart Move for It?

Core Insights - Altria Group, Inc. is increasingly focusing on its discount cigarette offerings due to rising costs making adult smokers more price-sensitive, with discount retail share in the U.S. cigarette industry rising to 32.2% in Q3 2025, a 2.4 share point increase year over year [1][8] - Altria's flagship premium brand, Marlboro, experienced an 11.7% volume decline and a 1.2-point drop in total cigarette retail share, indicating pressure on premium-priced products [1][8] Group 1: Altria's Performance and Strategy - Altria's discount cigarette shipment volume surged 74.5% year over year in Q3 2025, reaching over 1.2 billion sticks, which helped offset some overall volume decline and reflects a focus on the value segment [2][8] - The Basic brand is playing a crucial role in retaining consumers who are shifting to lower-priced options, helping stabilize volumes during economic pressure rather than driving growth [4] - Despite a 2.8% decline in smokeable products net revenues, a favorable volume mix and pricing actions contributed to a 0.7% increase in adjusted operating companies income for the segment [3][8] Group 2: Comparison with Peers - Philip Morris International Inc. has taken a different approach, with limited emphasis on discount cigarettes, experiencing a 3.2% decline in combustible cigarette volumes but offsetting this with strong pricing and a favorable mix [5] - Turning Point Brands, Inc. is focusing on its Modern Oral segment, with sales surging 627.6% year over year, now accounting for 30.8% of total business, aiming for double-digit market share [6] Group 3: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Altria's shares have lost 0.2% in the past month, while the industry has grown by 3.1% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.33X, below the industry average of 14.37X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Altria's earnings implies year-over-year growth of 6.3% for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026 [11]