Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-12 15:30Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products has led to an unexpected increase in demand during the traditionally slow first quarter, as companies rush to secure orders before costs rise [1][2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be canceled starting April 1, 2026, marking a shift to a "no rebate subsidy" phase for the industry [1] - As a result of this policy change, companies are experiencing increased export demand, with major photovoltaic component companies seeing significant stock price increases, such as Dongfang Risheng rising over 14% and Trina Solar increasing by over 8% [1] Group 2 - The photovoltaic supply chain is showing signs of differentiation, with upstream silicon material companies experiencing relatively low growth, while component manufacturers are raising prices to capitalize on the export window [2] - The phenomenon of rushing to export may lead to a potential overshoot of overseas demand in the second quarter, reminiscent of previous demand fluctuations caused by policy changes [2][3] - Analysts suggest that while the current rush to export may temporarily alleviate supply-demand imbalances, it could also lead to a sharp decline in demand later, with the stability of industry prices relying heavily on self-discipline within the industry [3]