香港药妆零售之王龙丰集团欲在港上市，是机会还是风险？

Core Viewpoint - Long Fung Group Holdings Limited, a well-known drugstore chain in Hong Kong, has submitted its application for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising questions about whether this is a chance for value reassessment or a high-leverage gamble given the current market conditions [1] Financial Performance - Long Fung Group is projected to achieve a revenue increase from HKD 1.094 billion to HKD 2.460 billion from fiscal year 2023 to 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50% [3] - Gross profit margin is expected to rise from 24.9% to 31.6% during the same period, with net profit turning positive at HKD 145 million in fiscal year 2024 and increasing to HKD 170 million in fiscal year 2025 [3] - In the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, profits surged by 130.7% year-on-year, indicating strong growth momentum [3] Market Position - Long Fung Group holds a 5.2% market share, making it the largest pharmaceutical retailer in Hong Kong, and has the highest average SKU count per store at approximately 6,500 [3] - The flagship store in Mong Kok, spanning 17,500 square feet, exemplifies its "supermarket-style drugstore" model, combining pharmaceuticals, beauty products, and daily necessities [3] Financial Structure and Risks - As of June 30, 2025, Long Fung Group's net current liabilities reached HKD 332 million, with short-term borrowings of HKD 625 million and cash equivalents of only HKD 33.6 million, indicating a reliance on supplier credit and bank financing [4] - The company has a staggering debt-to-asset ratio of 809.4%, with negative net assets, as nearly all assets are mortgaged for financing [4] - Revenue is heavily dependent on the Hong Kong market, with 97.2% coming from physical stores concentrated in tourist areas, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in tourist traffic [4] Online Presence and Competition - Online revenue for fiscal year 2025 is projected at only HKD 43 million, accounting for 1.7% of total revenue, and has been declining for three consecutive years [5] - The company’s online strategy lacks effective user engagement, contrasting sharply with competitors like Watsons and Mannings [5] Governance and Management Concerns - The governance structure raises concerns, with the family of the founder holding 100% control through TTK Holding, leading to frequent related-party transactions [5] - As of 2025, receivables from related parties amounted to HKD 289 million, nearly 40% of current assets, and significant dividends were paid to core subsidiaries before the IPO [5] Growth Drivers - The recovery of tourism spending post-2023 and the expansion from 13 to 29 stores are key growth factors, along with an increase in proprietary brand sales to 13.6%, enhancing overall gross margins [6] Competitive Advantages - Long Fung Group benefits from a deep understanding of local consumer culture, a vast SKU assortment, a professional team of pharmacists and beauty consultants, and a procurement office in Japan, creating competitive barriers [7] Future Expansion Challenges - The company plans to open up to 11 new stores by 2029, but faces challenges due to rising vacancy rates and high rental costs in Hong Kong [8] - Same-store sales growth has dropped from 64% to 5.6%, indicating diminishing returns on expansion efforts [8] - The potential for growth in the Greater Bay Area remains unproven, raising questions about the sustainability of its "drugstore king" title beyond Hong Kong [8]