Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-12 16:34Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing an unexpected surge in demand during the traditionally slow first quarter due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, prompting overseas buyers to place orders in advance to avoid higher costs after April 2026 [1] Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of the value-added tax export rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, marking a shift to a "no rebate subsidy" phase for the industry [1] - The cancellation of the rebate is expected to increase export costs, leading to a rush in orders from overseas buyers before the policy takes effect, thus boosting first-quarter export demand [1] - Major photovoltaic companies, such as Dongfang Risen and Trina Solar, saw significant stock price increases, with Dongfang Risen hitting a new high since September 2023 [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Price Trends - The photovoltaic supply chain is showing a divergence, with upstream silicon material companies experiencing relatively low performance, while leading component manufacturers are raising prices to capitalize on the export window [2] - The price increase in components is expected to enhance profit margins for component manufacturers in the first quarter, while silicon material prices will depend on the self-regulation of the industry and profit margins [2] - There is a concern that the rush for exports may preemptively exhaust overseas demand for the second quarter, potentially leading to a sharp decline in demand similar to previous years [2][3] Group 3: Future Outlook and Demand Stability - Analysts suggest that after the export rush, there may be a significant drop in demand, which could put pressure on silicon prices again [3] - The stability of the photovoltaic industry's supply and demand dynamics will rely heavily on self-regulation within the industry and the actual trends in production control [3] - The domestic photovoltaic installation is expected to grow steadily under policy guidance, with leading companies that have integrated overseas production and sales likely to be less affected by the cancellation of the rebate [3]