日元引发全球金融核弹，美日利差惊天逆转，你的钱包正面临巨大风险

Core Viewpoint - The recent upheaval in the global financial landscape is not a sudden event but the culmination of over two decades of structural changes, primarily triggered by Japan's shift away from its role as a low-cost financing source for global capital [1]. Group 1: Impact of Japan's Monetary Policy Shift - The Bank of Japan's gradual exit from negative interest rates, raising the policy rate from -0.1% to around 0.25%, marks the end of the "ultra-loose monetary policy era" [1]. - This shift has led to a significant contraction in the yen carry trade, which has supported a prolonged bull market in U.S. equities and inflated global risk asset prices [1]. - The immediate market reaction included forced liquidations by institutions reliant on yen financing, resulting in a sharp sell-off of liquid assets such as U.S. stocks and bonds [1]. Group 2: Global Market Repercussions - The Nikkei 225 index experienced a single-day drop of over 12%, while the S&P 500 fell nearly 5%, reflecting systemic capital reflow [1]. - The yen's transition from a financing currency to a safe-haven currency has led to a rapid appreciation against the dollar, impacting global capital allocation strategies [1]. - The rise in the yen has increased the cost of imports for Japan, while simultaneously causing a ripple effect on global commodity prices, leading to heightened volatility in assets priced in dollars [4]. Group 3: Effects on Emerging Markets and Global Supply Chains - A phase of foreign capital withdrawal from A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and Southeast Asian markets has occurred, despite stable fundamentals [3]. - The rising yen has indirectly increased the prices of commodities like gold and oil, further straining global supply chains and increasing costs for consumers [4]. - The cost of studying abroad and cross-border consumption for Chinese citizens has significantly increased due to the yen's appreciation, affecting consumer behavior [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - The current market environment necessitates a reevaluation of investment strategies, as the previous reliance on cheap yen financing is no longer viable [1][14]. - Holding cash and maintaining liquidity is emphasized as a survival strategy in the face of market volatility and potential asset price corrections [14]. - The transition away from a low-cost funding environment suggests that asset prices will need to adjust to a new normal, with a downward shift in equity valuations expected [14][15].