日本军工濒临瘫痪背后：稀土博弈暴露供应链致命短板

Core Insights - The ongoing rare earth supply crisis is severely impacting Japan's military industry, with significant delays in key defense projects due to export controls imposed by China [1][3] - Japan's reliance on China for strategic materials is alarming, with import dependency rates for gallium and germanium at 85% and nearly 100% respectively, and tungsten products for missiles and aircraft making up nearly 30% of China's total exports [3] - Japan's attempts to establish a rare earth supply chain with the US and Europe are hindered by technological challenges, as critical refining technologies remain unachieved [4] Group 1 - Japan's military projects, including the F-15J upgrade and F-35 deliveries, are facing delays of up to two years due to rare earth permanent magnet shortages [1] - The price of rare earth materials has surged by 3-5 times as Japan turns to third countries for procurement, following China's control over 92% of global rare earth processing capacity [3] - Japan's emergency measures, including a visit by Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki to the US, reflect a desperate attempt to mitigate the crisis through geopolitical alliances [4] Group 2 - The disruption in Japan's defense research and development system is evident, with adjustments needed for hypersonic missile and sixth-generation fighter projects due to supply chain issues [3] - The situation highlights the limitations of traditional military deterrence in the face of supply chain disruptions, as Japan's defense ministry convenes emergency meetings [4] - The ongoing rare earth competition serves as a test of each country's capabilities in critical technology sectors, with Japan's military challenges potentially just beginning [4][5]