高基数下的韧性增长与转型进程 – 粤港澳大湾区2025年经济回顾及2026年展望

Economic Performance - In 2025, Guangdong's GDP reached 10.52 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.4% of the national total, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared to 2024 [1][9][10] - The Pearl River Delta's nine cities contributed 81.8% to Guangdong's GDP, with Shenzhen leading at a growth rate of 5.5%, while cities like Zhongshan and Foshan lagged behind [1][12][14] Export Dynamics - Guangdong's exports totaled 4.98 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, accounting for 22.5% of the national total [1][15][21] - The export structure is shifting towards high-tech products, with mechanical and electrical products making up 68.4% of total exports, and significant growth in integrated circuits and other high-tech items [1][22][21] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Guangdong decreased by 15.2% year-on-year in the first ten months, significantly lower than the national average decline of 1.7% [2][27] - Despite the overall decline, investments in new productive forces, particularly in internet services and software, showed substantial growth, indicating a shift towards modernization [2][30] Consumer Behavior - Social retail sales in Guangdong grew by 2.7% year-on-year in the first ten months, with a notable increase of 1.8 percentage points compared to 2024, although still below the national growth rate [2][34][35] - The recovery in consumption is tempered by slow income growth, with real disposable income increasing by 4.7%, lower than the national average of 5.2% [2][34][35] Outlook for 2026 - The economic growth for Guangdong in 2026 is projected to be around 4.5%, characterized by resilient external demand, potential for internal demand, and ongoing transformation of economic drivers [2][41][42] - The diversification of export markets and structural upgrades in industries are expected to support trade growth, particularly with emerging markets like ASEAN and the Middle East [2][46][47]