碳酸锂期货两年来首次突破15万元关口，机构：上行空间仍在

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by adjustments in battery export tax policies, leading to increased demand and expectations for downstream procurement [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movement - On January 12, the domestic commodity futures market saw a strong performance, with lithium carbonate main contracts hitting a limit up of 9%, reaching 156,060 yuan/ton, marking the first time in two years that it surpassed the 150,000 yuan threshold [1]. - Since early December, lithium carbonate prices have risen sharply, breaking through multiple price barriers, and have rebounded over 150% from the low point in June of the previous year [1]. - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 152,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate was at 148,500 yuan/ton, both showing significant daily increases [1]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The recent price increase is attributed to the adjustment of export tax policies for battery products, which will see a reduction in the VAT export rebate rate from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and a complete cancellation by January 1, 2027 [2]. - Analysts believe that this policy change will directly impact corporate profitability, prompting a rush to export before the tax benefits diminish, thus driving up lithium carbonate prices [2]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Demand from the new energy commercial vehicle and energy storage sectors has significantly exceeded expectations, shifting industry sentiment from "oversupply" to "tight balance" [3]. - The first quarter is expected to show strong demand, with prices likely to maintain a robust upward trend, although there are concerns about potential cost pressures if prices exceed 200,000 yuan/ton [3]. - There are warnings that speculative trading in lithium carbonate could lead to a zero-sum game within the supply chain, potentially distorting investment signals and exacerbating long-term oversupply risks [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Measures - To maintain stability in the lithium carbonate futures market and mitigate potential risks, regulatory bodies have implemented various measures, including adjustments to trading fees and limits [3].