存储芯片价格失控！华尔街再调预期：2026年DRAM或暴涨88%

Core Viewpoint - Citi warns of a "severe supply shortage" in the global storage chip market by 2026, driven by the proliferation of AI agents and a surge in AI CPU memory demand, leading to a significant increase in storage chip prices [1][2]. Pricing Power Shift - The pricing power in the storage memory market is expected to shift entirely to sellers, with a structural data growth driving this change. Citi has revised its 2026 DRAM average selling price (ASP) growth forecast from +53% to +88% [2]. Server DRAM Price Surge - Server DRAM prices are projected to skyrocket by 144% in 2026, up from a previous forecast of +91%. For instance, the price of the mainstream 64GB DDR5 RDIMM is expected to reach $620 in Q1 2026, a 38% increase from the earlier estimate of $518 [3]. NAND Flash Market Outlook - In the NAND flash sector, Citi has raised its 2026 ASP growth forecast from +44% to +74%, with enterprise SSD ASP expected to increase by 87%. This indicates a highly aggressive seller's market, with pricing power firmly in the hands of major storage players like Samsung [8]. Samsung Electronics Profit Forecast - Due to favorable pricing conditions, Citi has significantly revised its profit outlook for Samsung Electronics, projecting an operating profit of 155 trillion KRW in 2026, a 253% increase year-on-year, compared to a previous estimate of 115 trillion KRW. Consequently, the target price for Samsung has been raised from 170,000 KRW to 200,000 KRW [8]. Divergence in Market Predictions - There is a notable divergence between Citi and Nomura regarding market predictions. Nomura anticipates a 46% increase in DRAM prices and a 65% increase in NAND prices for 2026, while Citi's forecasts are much more aggressive at 88% and 74%, respectively. This difference stems from varying interpretations of demand dynamics, particularly the impact of AI agents on data generation [9]. Supply Chain Constraints - The supply side is facing significant physical limitations, particularly due to a shortage of cleanroom availability, which is constraining supply expansion in the global storage industry. Even if manufacturers decide to increase production, substantial supply growth will be limited until mid-2027 [10][11]. Long-term Supply Bottlenecks - The transition to advanced manufacturing processes, such as moving to 1C-nanometer technology, is expected to reduce wafer production capacity by 10% to 15% initially, further complicating the supply situation. This mismatch between supply and demand underpins Citi's bold predictions for DRAM price increases [12].