鲍威尔遭刑事调查 美联储独立性风暴升级 美国市场再现“股汇债三杀”

Core Viewpoint - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under severe scrutiny as Chairman Jerome Powell faces a criminal investigation related to a renovation project, raising concerns about the influence of political pressure on monetary policy [1][2][3] Group 1: Investigation and Political Pressure - The U.S. federal prosecutors have initiated a criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, focusing on potential false statements made to Congress regarding the scale of a renovation project [1][2] - Powell has publicly stated that the investigation undermines the Federal Reserve's independence in setting interest rates, suggesting that monetary policy could be swayed by political pressures [1][3] - The investigation was approved in November of the previous year, indicating a long-standing concern regarding Powell's actions [1] Group 2: Trump's Influence and Intentions - President Trump has been critical of Powell for not accommodating his requests for significant interest rate cuts, despite having nominated him as Chairman in 2017 [2][3] - Analysts suggest that the investigation serves as a strategic move by Trump to force Powell's resignation without direct legal confrontation, thereby altering the Federal Reserve's leadership and potentially its policies [2][3] - The timing of the investigation is crucial, as it coincides with significant upcoming debt refinancing needs for the U.S. government, which may require lower interest rates [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the news of the investigation, gold and silver prices surged, with gold surpassing $4600 per ounce, while the U.S. markets experienced a "triple whammy" of declines in stocks, bonds, and the dollar [1][3] - The investigation has led to a reassessment of the risk premium associated with U.S. Treasury bonds, as the market begins to factor in potential "institutional default risk" due to the Federal Reserve's compromised independence [7][17] - Analysts predict that if the Federal Reserve's independence is undermined, it could lead to a fundamental restructuring of global asset pricing, with significant implications for the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields [7][17] Group 4: Future Outlook for the Federal Reserve - The potential for a new Federal Reserve chair appointed under Trump's influence raises concerns about the erosion of the central bank's independence, with implications for monetary policy and financial stability [6][16] - There is a risk that the Federal Reserve may become more aligned with fiscal policy, potentially leading to a scenario where it acts as a "printing machine" for the White House [16] - The ongoing political uncertainty and the investigation's impact on the Federal Reserve's credibility could lead to a prolonged period of volatility in financial markets, particularly affecting high-valuation stocks and the bond market [7][19]