4600美元/盎司！黄金又创新高 机构：长期看涨

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, surpassing $4600 per ounce, is driven by concerns over political interference in the Federal Reserve's independence, leading to a weaker dollar and increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Supporting Gold Price Increase - Geopolitical risks are high, with U.S. military involvement in Venezuela contributing to increased market uncertainty and driving up gold prices [3]. - Rising U.S. fiscal risks, exacerbated by past government shutdowns and unsustainable debt levels, are prompting investors to seek refuge in gold, diminishing the appeal of dollar-denominated assets [3]. - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves as a strategic response to economic uncertainties, which is a significant factor in the rising gold prices [3][4]. - The expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, due to a cooling labor market and manageable inflation risks, is providing further support for gold prices [3]. Group 2: Future Gold Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley has raised its gold price forecast, predicting it could reach $4800 per ounce by 2026, indicating strong long-term bullish sentiment [4]. - DBS Bank anticipates gold prices will fluctuate around $4500 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with potential to reach $5100 per ounce in the latter half, driven by central bank demand and increasing investment from both institutions and retail investors [4]. - The long-term demand for gold from central banks is expected to surpass that from jewelry and ETFs, reflecting a strategic shift in asset allocation amid global monetary system changes [4][5].