伊朗风险扭转“石油叙事”，周一“布油看涨期权”成交量创历史新高，交易员紧急寻求“空仓保护”

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing a dramatic sentiment reversal due to supply disruption concerns stemming from protests in Iran, leading traders to buy call options at unprecedented levels to hedge against price surges, shifting the earlier pessimistic outlook on supply surplus [1]. Group 1: Market Activity - On Monday, the trading volume of Brent crude oil call options reached a historic high, exceeding 556,000 contracts, reflecting heightened market vigilance regarding supply risks from Iran, the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC [1]. - The implied volatility and call option premiums have continued to rise, reaching their highest levels since June of the previous year, following military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran [1]. - Brent crude futures have increased by over 6% since last Wednesday, as short positions betting on supply surplus were forced to cover [1]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - The options trading on Monday was dominated by large-scale spread trades, which provided relatively inexpensive tools for betting on sudden price spikes. Notably, significant trades included spread contracts equivalent to 40 million barrels [5]. - Early signals of large call spread trades were observed before Friday's close, including a spread contract equivalent to 50 million barrels, setting the stage for Monday's explosive trading volume [5]. - These spread strategies allow traders to hedge against a range of potential outcomes, from military escalation to supply disruptions due to protests by Iranian oil workers [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - The shift in market sentiment has been abrupt; earlier this month, the outlook was pessimistic due to the recovery prospects of Venezuelan production, which was exacerbating global supply surplus concerns [4]. - The "skew" indicator for Brent crude oil options has shifted in favor of call options since mid-last week, indicating a rare market condition typically seen during geopolitical pressures [6]. - Despite claims from Tehran that protests have been quelled, unrest appears to persist, with reports indicating that U.S. President Trump is considering military action against Iran, adding to the uncertainty in the market [8].