光伏出口退税将取消，行业有望迈入高质量发展

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration will cancel the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, which is expected to increase export costs and reduce profitability for photovoltaic and energy storage companies in the short term. However, this policy may lead to a long-term shift towards high-quality development in the photovoltaic industry, with a focus on technological innovation and brand building [1][2][3]. Short-term Impact - The cancellation of the export tax rebate is expected to increase the export costs for photovoltaic module companies, with leading enterprises projected to lose between 1 to 2 billion yuan annually in tax rebates, resulting in a profit reduction of 46-51 yuan per 210R photovoltaic module. This may lead to a surge in export orders before the policy takes effect, boosting short-term industry demand [2][3]. Long-term Impact - The removal of the export tax rebate is anticipated to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacity, with a shift towards technological innovation and brand development. High-efficiency components like BC and TOPCon 3.0 are expected to command higher premiums, becoming mainstream in future exports. Leading companies are likely to expand their market share as the competitive landscape improves [3]. Energy Storage Outlook - The impact on energy storage profits is expected to be limited, with leading companies likely to manage price transmission effectively. The policy aims to optimize supply and raise entry barriers for exports, benefiting industry leaders with overseas production capacity. The global energy storage market is projected to grow significantly, with new installations expected to reach 255 GWh in 2025, 407 GWh in 2026, and 538 GWh in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 45.3% [4]. Investment Strategy - Investment opportunities in the photovoltaic sector are recommended along three main lines: 1. Focus on leading energy storage companies benefiting from domestic and overseas demand [4]. 2. Monitor leading companies across the supply chain that are likely to maintain their competitive edge as outdated capacity is cleared [4]. 3. Invest in companies pioneering new technologies, particularly in high-efficiency battery components and emerging materials like perovskite batteries [4].