Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-13 00:26Group 1 - The average domestic aluminum price in China reached 21,407 yuan/ton in Q4 2025, a 3.4% increase from Q3, contributing to an annual average of 20,646 yuan/ton, which is a 1.0% increase compared to the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - On January 5, 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum price hit 23,300 yuan/ton, marking the highest level since March 2022 [1] - The Shandong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan aiming for a 5% year-on-year growth in the added value of the non-ferrous metal industry by 2026, with aluminum industry revenue exceeding 660 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities anticipates that the profit center for electrolytic aluminum will further increase in the first half of 2026, despite recent price surges leading to cautious purchasing behavior in the downstream industry [1][2] - The current weak purchasing sentiment in the downstream sector is seen as normal under high price conditions, but it may lead to low raw material inventories, which could support aluminum prices if the long-term supply-demand balance remains tight [2] - The upcoming "golden three silver four" peak demand season is expected to positively influence prices, suggesting that weaker current buying intentions may benefit future aluminum price and profit center increases [2] Group 3 - China Hongqiao (01378) is a leading global aluminum producer with a strong cost advantage due to high self-sufficiency in bauxite, power, and alumina, with projected net profits of 24.803 billion yuan, 25.81 billion yuan, and 27.96 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [3] - Innovation Industry (02788) is expanding its electrolytic aluminum capacity in Saudi Arabia, with a 33.6% stake in a comprehensive project, benefiting from integrated energy and alumina production [3] - Nanshan Aluminum (600219) is planning a 1 million ton/year electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia, supported by an existing alumina plant, which provides raw material security and cost advantages [4]