潮宏基(002345)：预告2025年净利润高增 渠道拓展持续推进

Core Viewpoint - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a year-on-year growth of 125% to 175% [1] Group 1: Performance Preview - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 440 to 530 million yuan for 2025, with a corresponding non-recurring net profit of 420 to 510 million yuan, both reflecting a year-on-year growth of 125% to 175% [1] - For Q4 2025, the company expects a net profit of approximately 170 million yuan, marking a substantial turnaround from a loss of 120 million yuan in Q4 2024 [1] Group 2: Key Focus Areas - The jewelry segment is expected to continue its strong growth, with Q3 2025 jewelry business revenue increasing by 54% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively expanding its online and offline channels and accelerating its international layout, with a total of 1,668 jewelry stores expected by the end of 2025, adding 163 stores throughout the year [2] - The company anticipates that the rising gold prices, which increased by 59% in 2025, will enhance consumer interest and preference for gold jewelry [2] Group 3: Brand and Product Strategy - Brands with distinctive features and strong recognition are expected to outperform the industry, with the company focusing on fashionable interpretations of Eastern culture and expanding its young and trendy gold product lines [3] - The company has successfully launched products such as intangible cultural heritage flower silk and IP collaborations, demonstrating its strong product design capabilities [3] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 0.53 and 0.66 yuan, respectively, and introduces a 2027 EPS forecast of 0.81 yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to 19 and 15 times the P/E ratios for 2026 and 2027, respectively, with a target price of 16.39 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 31% [4]