财经随笔记：黄金三连阳冲4630，提防冲高回落调整风险（2026.1.13）

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, leading to a 0.23% decline in the dollar index to 98.90, which has catalyzed a surge in gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets [2] - Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in Iran and Venezuela, along with uncertainties surrounding U.S. trade policies, have increased global uncertainty, driving funds into gold [2] - Market expectations suggest that the Fed will lower interest rates twice later this year, which, combined with rising inflation expectations, supports gold as a hedge against inflation [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a strong upward trend on Monday, achieving three consecutive daily gains, with key support levels to watch at 4520, 4560, and 4550 [4] - The current upward movement in gold, starting from a low of 4274, is following a five-wave structure, indicating a potential risk of a pullback after reaching the fifth wave [6] - Resistance levels to monitor include the recent high of 4630, with further resistance anticipated in the 4655-4660 range, which is critical for the current phase [6]