现货黄金突破4600美元创历史新高，白银涨至86美元

Price Dynamics and Market Response - Spot gold prices surpassed $4600 per ounce for the first time, reaching a peak of $4630, marking a historical high, with a daily increase of over 2% and a monthly rise of $280 [1] - Spot silver prices increased by over 5%, crossing $86 per ounce, while the main Shanghai silver futures contract surged by 14.42%, exceeding 20998 yuan per kilogram [1] - Domestic retail market saw brand gold jewelry prices jump by 19-22 yuan per gram, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang quoting prices at 1429 yuan per gram, leading to a doubling of the total price of a 60-gram gold bracelet to over 80,000 yuan since the beginning of the year [1] Core Drivers of Price Increase - Expectations of loose monetary policy due to weak U.S. non-farm payroll data, with the market betting on over 75 basis points of cumulative rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, causing the U.S. dollar index to drop to a three-year low, thus reducing the holding cost of non-yielding assets [3] - Geopolitical risks, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and escalating conflicts in the Middle East, alongside global central banks increasing gold holdings for 14 consecutive months, with net purchases of 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, driving safe-haven investments [4] Silver Demand and Supply Dynamics - Explosive growth in industrial demand for silver, particularly from photovoltaic installations (accounting for 55% of silver demand), electric vehicles (with silver usage per vehicle being seven times that of gasoline vehicles), and surging demand for AI servers [5] - Silver inventory depletion, with London deliverable stocks at a ten-year low of only 233 tons, leading to spot premiums soaring to 7%-8% [6] Market Divergence and Risk Indicators - Divergent market views with bullish perspectives citing industrial demand, central bank purchases, and a weakening dollar, while cautious views highlight severe overbought conditions, with silver's RSI reaching 93.86, the highest since 1980, prompting warnings of potential short-term corrections to $4280-$4300 [7][8] - Technical indicators suggest a bubble in gold with an RSI exceeding 85, and silver's volatility being three times that of gold, historically associated with significant corrections [8] Practical Strategy Recommendations - For consumers, prioritize bank gold bars (premium ≤ 5%) or gold accumulation plans, and consider processing through Shenzhen's water bay market to avoid high premiums on branded jewelry [10] - For investors, maintain a position management strategy with a maximum allocation of 10% of liquid assets, favoring gold ETFs with fees below 0.5% over leveraged trading, and implement strict stop-loss measures for silver investments [11] - Timing recommendations suggest entering gold positions if prices dip below $4500 and identifying support for silver in the $74-$75 range [12] Long-term Investment Logic - Gold is viewed as an asset "ballast," with strategic value in hedging sovereign credit risks, rather than a short-term speculative tool, emphasizing adherence to the "three no principles": no betting on trends, no leverage, and no risking personal assets [13] Future Key Observation Points - Policy developments to watch include the Federal Reserve's March dot plot, progress on U.S. government shutdown, and signals of inflation data recovery [14] - Industry developments to monitor include advancements in photovoltaic silver substitution technologies and changes in exchange inventories, as continued declines may support precious metal prices [15]