Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-13 00:47Core Dynamics and Data - Historical Breakthrough: On December 23, 2025, COMEX gold futures first broke $4500/oz, reaching a peak of $4555.1; London spot gold also surged to $4525.83/oz, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 70%, marking the largest annual gain since 1979 [2] - Consumer Transmission: Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang saw a daily increase of 36 yuan in gold jewelry prices, with a reported price of 1411 yuan/gram on December 24, totaling a two-day increase of 44 yuan. The cost of 60 grams of wedding "three golds" skyrocketed from under 40,000 yuan at the beginning of the year to over 80,000 yuan, leading some couples to consider rentals or "gold-plated silver" alternatives [2] Driving Forces Behind the Surge - Monetary Easing Expectations: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 75 basis points cumulatively in 2025, with the market betting on further cuts in 2026. The decline in U.S. Treasury yields diminishes the dollar's attractiveness, while lower real interest rates reduce the cost of holding gold [3] - Surge in Safe-Haven Demand: - Geopolitical Risks: U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil tankers and tensions in the Middle East have heightened risk aversion [4] - De-dollarization: Central banks globally purchased a net 634 tons of gold in the first three quarters, with China increasing its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, leading to a decrease in the dollar's share of foreign exchange reserves to 56.32% [4] - Technical Buying Pressure: The gold price broke through the resistance level of $4380 set in October, triggering algorithmic trading, with gold ETFs experiencing net inflows for five consecutive weeks [4] Market Divergence and Risk Alerts - Bullish Camp: Central bank gold purchases and an ongoing rate-cut cycle support a bullish outlook, with Goldman Sachs predicting $4900 and JPMorgan forecasting $5055 [5] - Cautious Camp: Concerns over short-term overbought conditions and policy fluctuations, with Citigroup warning of a pullback to $4280-$4300 and economist Guan Qingyou cautioning that rapid price increases may not be beneficial [5] - Historical Lessons: In October, gold prices twice touched $4380 before experiencing a single-day drop of nearly $200 (a 6.3% decline), with the current RSI indicating overbought conditions in the 74-80 range [5] Practical Advice for Ordinary Users - Consumer Pitfalls: - Wedding essentials should prioritize gold jewelry priced by weight in markets like Shenzhen's Shui Bei, avoiding brand premiums of around 30% [6] - Consider refurbishing old gold or opting for "gold-plated silver" alternatives, which are priced at only one-fifth of solid gold [6] - Investment Allocation: - Tools: Gold ETFs (with fees <0.5%) and bank gold savings should be preferred, avoiding high-leverage futures due to frequent liquidations at 80x leverage in October [7] - Strategy: Maintain positions at ≤10% of liquid assets, employing dollar-cost averaging to mitigate high-price risks and avoid chasing prices [7] Future Trend Core Contradictions - Upward Momentum: The erosion of the dollar's credit system is transforming gold from an "anti-inflation tool" to the "ultimate asset against sovereign credit risk," with Morgan Stanley predicting gold prices could challenge $7000-$8000 by 2030 [8] - Downward Risks: If the Federal Reserve's independence is restored or if global economic recovery exceeds expectations, a prolonged bear market for gold similar to the 1980-2000 period could re-emerge [8]