期货日报：鲍威尔“遭查”引爆金属市场 贵金属价格再创历史新高

Core Viewpoint - The potential criminal investigation of Powell has led to a significant rise in precious metals, with both gold and silver reaching historical highs, driven by concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and uncertainty in monetary policy [1] Group 1: Impact of Powell's Investigation - Powell's investigation is unprecedented and threatens the traditional independence of the Federal Reserve, which could undermine confidence in the dollar and indirectly boost precious metal prices [1] - The investigation creates decision-making pressure for Powell, as lowering interest rates may confirm political pressure, while maintaining high rates could escalate the investigation [1] - The upcoming end of Powell's term in May and the selection of a new chair could influence the future independence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - Expectations of monetary easing are expected to lower U.S. Treasury yields and market interest rates, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and increasing its investment demand [2] - The weakening of the dollar due to reduced confidence and the potential for inflation driven by loose monetary policy could further enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [2] - Regardless of who becomes the next Federal Reserve chair, the market anticipates multiple rate cuts and balance sheet expansion to ensure liquidity, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts by 2026 unless economic data improves significantly [2] Group 3: Long-term Considerations for Precious Metals - The erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence is linked to broader issues such as U.S. debt sustainability and increasing political divisions, suggesting a strong and lasting support for precious metal prices [3] - Key signals to monitor include the new Federal Reserve chair's stance, the progress of the 2026 midterm elections, and policy statements from Federal Reserve meetings [3] - A potential decline in the "political premium" for precious metals could occur if the investigation concludes without substantial evidence, or if the new chair signals a commitment to policy independence [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Rapid price increases may lead to overbought conditions, prompting either side to exit positions, which could result in significant price adjustments [4]