特朗普批准重大制裁法案，中国印度巴西敢买俄油将加税500%

Group 1 - The core of the new sanctions bill S.1241 is that it imposes a 500% tax on any country purchasing Russian oil, which is a strategic move in geopolitical economic negotiations [1][3] - The bill includes a "presidential determination" trigger mechanism, allowing the U.S. President to impose sanctions based on specific actions by Russia, such as refusing peace talks with Ukraine or violating agreements [1][3] - The bill aims to leverage market access as a bargaining chip to pressure countries like China, India, and Brazil, which together account for over half of Russia's oil exports [3][4] Group 2 - China imports over 2 million barrels of Russian oil daily, while India imports 1.5 million barrels, indicating a significant reliance on Russian oil that complicates U.S. sanctions [3][4] - India faces a dilemma between U.S. pressure and its energy needs, as Russian oil is cheaper than alternatives, which could lead to domestic inflation if it complies with U.S. demands [4][6] - Brazil's situation is more variable, as it has recently signed long-term contracts with Russia for oil, and could easily find alternative markets for its agricultural exports if faced with U.S. tariffs [6][8] Group 3 - The potential outcome of the sanctions could lead to a significant reduction in Russian oil revenues if major buyers like China, India, and Brazil are forced to cut back on imports [6][8] - The U.S. risks its own inflation rising if the 500% tax is implemented, as Russian oil still constitutes 7% of U.S. gas station prices [6][8] - The sanctions reflect a broader U.S. strategy to reshape the global energy order, potentially accelerating the de-dollarization process as countries seek alternative payment mechanisms [8]