原油市场风向生变! 伊朗风险引爆“上行保险”抢购潮 布油看涨期权交易量创纪录

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing a significant shift due to rising geopolitical risks in Iran, leading to a record surge in bullish oil options trading as traders seek to hedge against potential supply disruptions [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil futures prices have increased by over 6% since last Wednesday, driven by concerns over supply threats from escalating protests in Iran and potential military actions by the U.S. government [2][6]. - On Monday, over 556,000 bullish options contracts were traded, marking a historic high, with a focus on near-term contracts [1][3]. - The implied volatility and premiums for bullish oil bets have risen to their highest levels since June of the previous year, indicating increased demand for upward protection [1][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The situation in Iran remains volatile despite claims from Tehran that protests have been quelled, with reports suggesting that U.S. President Trump is inclined to initiate new strikes against Iran [3][6]. - The geopolitical tensions have led to a significant shift in market sentiment, with traders moving from bearish to bullish positions in response to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. Group 3: Supply Concerns - Iran's daily oil exports account for approximately 2% of global demand, and any disruption could alleviate concerns about an impending oversupply in the global oil market [6][7]. - Reports indicate that oil inventories at a major Iranian export terminal have decreased by about 20% since the beginning of the year, suggesting either a strategic transfer of oil or damage to energy infrastructure due to protests [7].