温氏股份2025年净利预减

Core Viewpoint - Wens Foodstuff Group has projected a significant decline in net profit for 2025, primarily due to falling prices of livestock products impacting its breeding business [2][3]. Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5 billion to 5.5 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 40.73% to 46.12% [2]. - The non-recurring net profit is forecasted to be between 4.8 billion and 5.3 billion yuan, down 44.64% to 49.86% compared to the previous year [2]. - In 2025, Wens sold 40.4769 million pigs, exceeding its initial target of 33 million to 35 million pigs, but the average selling price dropped by 17.95% to 13.71 yuan per kilogram [2]. - The chicken business also faced challenges, with sales of 1.303 billion chickens, a slight increase from 1.208 billion the previous year, but the average selling price fell by 9.8% to 11.78 yuan per kilogram [2]. Industry Context - The Chinese pig industry is currently experiencing its sixth "pig cycle," with prices expected to decline throughout 2025, dropping from 15-16 yuan per kilogram at the beginning of the year to around 11-12 yuan per kilogram by the fourth quarter [3]. - Historical data shows that Wens has faced significant losses in previous years due to price fluctuations, including a loss of 13.404 billion yuan in 2021 and 6.39 billion yuan in 2023 [3]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that while pig prices have slightly recovered from their lowest point in 2025, they remain at historical lows, with future supply expected to remain ample [4]. - The company is advised to enhance its "pig and chicken industry hedging" strategy to smooth out earnings and optimize production capacity and timing [5]. - Cost control is highlighted as a critical focus area, with the comprehensive cost of pig farming expected to decrease to around 5.9 yuan per kilogram in 2026 [5].