铜价分歧加剧！瑞银押注“供给崩塌”，高盛警惕“过热回调”，拐点到了吗？

Core Viewpoint - There is a significant divergence in Wall Street's outlook on copper prices following a 22% surge, with UBS warning of a structural shortage by 2026/27 due to low project approvals, contrasting with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup's short-term caution regarding price sustainability driven by U.S. tariff fears [1][11][12] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - UBS analysts predict that despite a mixed demand outlook, the copper market will face a shortage by 2026/27, supported by declining inventories [5][12] - UBS's long-term model indicates that global mining supply will peak between 2028-2030 and then decline, with a projected supply-demand gap of 7 million tons by 2035 [5][6] - To address this gap, the industry needs to invest over $175 billion in new projects, with capital expenditures needing to rise significantly by 2026 and 2030 [6][8] Group 2: Capital Expenditure Challenges - UBS highlights that while nominal capital expenditures in the copper industry remain around $40 billion, real expenditures adjusted for inflation are only about 30% of the peak levels seen in 2013 [2][5] - The capital intensity of new projects is increasing, with potential projects from 2025-2030 requiring an average of $25,000 per ton, a 50% increase compared to previous projects [2][5] Group 3: Short-term Market Sentiment - Goldman Sachs and Citigroup express concerns that the recent price surge is primarily driven by speculative "stockpiling" in anticipation of U.S. tariffs, warning of a potential price correction once policy clarity is achieved [11][12] - Goldman Sachs maintains a forecast of a price drop to $11,200 per ton by Q4 2026, while Citigroup suggests that January may represent the peak price for 2026 [11][12] Group 4: Investment Strategies of Major Players - UBS notes that major mining companies like BHP and Rio Tinto are prioritizing mergers and acquisitions over high-risk new project developments, despite current prices being at levels that could incentivize new investments [8][12] - Key projects that may receive final investment decisions in the next 2-3 years include expansions in Chile and Argentina, as well as projects in the U.S. [8][12]