Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-13 02:25Core Insights - The beer industry in China is entering a new phase of competition, focusing on structural opportunities arising from category and channel innovations [2] - The demand for beer is gradually declining, with a projected slowdown in average selling price (ASP) growth for leading companies to 0.4% in 2024 due to lower-than-expected demand recovery and inflation [2] - The craft beer segment is emerging as a key trend, with an estimated penetration rate of approximately 3% in China, compared to 5-15% in developed countries [3] Category Innovation - The generational shift among consumers is creating significant opportunities for category innovation in the beer market, particularly in craft beer [3] - The craft beer landscape is expected to see limited concentration in the mid-term, with small brands leading flavor innovation and niche markets [3] - Major breweries are likely to benefit from the craft beer trend, as they are not bound by the same scale and independence requirements as craft breweries in Europe and the U.S. [3] Channel Transformation - The rapid growth of new retail channels is driven by consumer demands for convenience, rationality, and differentiation, with new retail beer sales estimated at around 30 billion yuan and a penetration rate of approximately 6% [4] - New retail is leveling the playing field, allowing regional breweries to gain market share in weaker markets and providing opportunities for small breweries to utilize excess capacity through OEM [4] - Despite the rise of new retail, established brands still hold significant competitive advantages in terms of brand recognition, quality control, and scale, which can help them maintain or increase market share [4]