美联储三把手突然“放鸽”，2026年通胀目标稳了？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is navigating a delicate balance between controlling inflation and supporting employment, with indications from John Williams suggesting potential further interest rate cuts in the coming year [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Direction - John Williams stated that the current interest rate range of 3.5%-3.75% has shifted from "moderately restrictive" to "neutral," indicating a balanced approach to economic stimulation and restraint [3]. - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve, with some officials advocating for no changes while others suggest aggressive cuts of 50 basis points [3]. - Williams proposed a "dynamic balance" strategy, aiming for three rate cuts to achieve a sweet spot that curbs inflation while supporting employment [3]. Group 2: Economic Projections - Economic growth is projected to be 1.5% in 2025 and accelerate to 2.25% in 2026, with inflation expected to return to the ideal level of 2% by 2027 [3]. Group 3: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The demand for labor is softening more than supply, raising concerns about the cooling job market while inflation remains sticky [4]. - The rising housing costs are particularly burdensome for low- and middle-income groups, potentially leading to reduced consumer spending [4]. Group 4: Neutral Interest Rate Insights - Williams highlighted the concept of the neutral interest rate (R*), suggesting it is around 1%, while market participants believe it is higher, indicating a divergence in expectations [5]. - He emphasized the need to focus on the lower end of the effective interest rate channel, suggesting that further rate cuts may occur if the job market weakens [5]. - Williams avoided direct comments on the January meeting but expressed strong support for the recent rate cut, indicating that rate cuts will likely remain a primary tool in 2024 [5].