碳酸锂期货大涨，分析人士：警惕预期差

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in lithium carbonate futures prices is attributed to strong fundamental expectations and multiple positive market news, with the main contract LC2605 rising by 9% to 156,300 yuan/ton [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The adjustment of export tax rebate policies for battery products, effective from April 1, 2026, is expected to create a short-term "export rush," supporting demand and alleviating concerns about seasonal demand weakness [2]. - The cumulative export volume of power and other batteries from January to November 2025 reached 260.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 44.2%, indicating that the anticipated "export rush" will have a marginal positive impact on overall lithium carbonate demand [2]. Policy Impact - The reduction and eventual cancellation of the export tax rebate for lithium batteries is seen as a move to guide the industry away from pure scale expansion and to alleviate homogenization competition pressures [4]. - The policy aims to encourage companies to enhance product technology and value, promoting a healthier and more sustainable industry structure [4]. Supply and Demand Outlook - Current market conditions suggest a gradual accumulation of lithium carbonate inventory, with signs of weakening fundamentals as of early January 2026 [4]. - The market is characterized by strong supply and demand dynamics, with ongoing negotiations between upstream and downstream players affecting price volatility [4]. Future Projections - There is an expectation of continued "export rush" demand from battery manufacturers until the cancellation of the tax rebate in 2027, potentially leading to concentrated short-term demand for lithium carbonate [5]. - However, a significant decline in demand for new energy batteries is anticipated at the beginning of 2026, necessitating production adjustments by battery manufacturers [5]. - The market may face dual impacts from upstream maintenance and traditional seasonal demand downturns, suggesting potential volatility in supply and demand [5].