华源证券：中国农业板块正站在周期底部与技术拐点交汇关键点 预计进入深度洗牌期

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural sector in China is at a critical juncture where technological advancements are reshaping cost structures, leading to a "survival of the fittest" scenario by 2026, with leading companies emerging as core assets that can navigate through cycles and focus on high-quality growth [1] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The agricultural sector is experiencing a structural adjustment due to traditional overcapacity and capital misallocation, resulting in many inefficient entities facing debt and management crises [1] - New agricultural technologies, such as gene editing and precision feeding, are being rapidly adopted, allowing leading companies to expand market share and drive the industry towards higher efficiency and quality [1][2] - In the pig farming sector, leading companies have stabilized production costs at the lower end of the industry cost curve, while smaller firms struggle to upgrade technologically, widening the cost gap [2] Group 2: Technological Advancements - Leading companies are leveraging breeding technology to enhance efficiency, with examples including the collaboration between Muyuan and Topigs Norsvin to improve breeding performance [3] - Digital solutions, such as AI precision feeding and IoT environmental sensing, are becoming essential for large-scale farms, significantly improving production efficiency and management [4] Group 3: Market Trends and Pricing - The protein market is expected to enter a phase of capacity reduction by 2026, with structural price increases anticipated for beef and dairy products, while pork supply pressures are expected to persist [5] - The average price of feed ingredients like soybean meal and corn is at a low point, but potential upward pressure exists due to various uncertainties, impacting the midstream farming and feed sectors [6] Group 4: Capital and Investment Landscape - The capital landscape is shifting, with a significant reduction in external capital entering the industry, leading to a deep restructuring phase [7] - The industry is facing high vacancy rates and low rental costs, allowing capable companies to adopt lighter asset models and transition from production-focused to service-oriented business models [7]