ETO Markets外汇：欧元兑美元汇率近期持续窄幅波动

Core Viewpoint - The Euro to Dollar exchange rate remains stable around 1.1665 as the market digests political dynamics surrounding the Federal Reserve, particularly an investigation into Chairman Powell's testimony regarding building renovations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Dollar Dynamics - Analysts indicate that public disagreements between the Federal Reserve and the government often negatively impact the Dollar's performance [3] - The political environment surrounding the Federal Reserve is putting pressure on the Dollar, while expectations of a shift in European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy provide support for the Euro [4] Group 2: European Central Bank and Euro Support - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos has stated that current interest rates are nearing appropriate levels, but geopolitical uncertainties must be closely monitored [3] - The futures market indicates that investors generally expect the ECB to maintain interest rates at the next meeting, with a low likelihood of rate hikes in the next two years [4] - The anticipated stability in ECB policy is providing fundamental support for the Euro amid a challenging economic recovery in the Eurozone [4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Comparisons - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index data is expected to influence Dollar movements, with a significant deviation from the forecast potentially strengthening the Dollar or further supporting the Euro [4] - The structural differences between the U.S. and European economies, particularly in response to geopolitical risks and energy prices, may impact future exchange rate trends [5] - Historical experiences suggest that political pressures on major central banks can affect monetary policy transmission mechanisms, leading to increased market volatility in the short term [5]