Zhong Guo Jing Ying Bao·2026-01-13 03:11Core Insights - The leading pig farming companies in China have not achieved significant results in reducing production capacity despite calls for it over the past year or two. In 2025, major listed pig companies reported a total pig sales volume of 144.54 million heads, an increase of 22.08 million heads compared to 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Data and Growth - In 2025, Muyuan Foods sold 77.98 million pigs, an increase of 6.38 million heads from 2024. Wens Foodstuff Group sold 40.48 million pigs, with a notable growth of 34.11%, exceeding its annual operational plan of 33-35 million heads [1]. - New Hope reported a pig sales volume of 17.55 million heads, aligning with its previous operational targets, while Zhengbang Technology sold 8.54 million heads, marking a 105.87% year-on-year increase [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Price Dynamics - The overall pig output from 19 listed companies in 2025 is projected to reach 198.67 million heads, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 24.9%. Companies like Zhengbang Technology and Dongrui Co. saw output growth exceeding 60% [2]. - The increase in supply has led to a decline in pig prices, with the average price dropping to 12.17 yuan/kg by January 2026, a decrease of 1.78% week-on-week and 23.51% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Capacity Management and Industry Recommendations - The "China Pig Industry High-Quality Development White Paper" indicates that the overcapacity issue stems from rapid expansion by large enterprises seeking scale effects. It suggests that market share for individual groups should not exceed 10%, and the top three companies should not exceed 30% [4]. - The report emphasizes the need for leading companies to stabilize the market by actively reducing production during periods of oversupply and releasing capacity in times of shortage [4]. Group 4: Structural Changes and Future Outlook - The current structure of pig farming is shifting towards larger enterprises, with only Muyuan Foods maintaining a market share around 10%. Analysts suggest a balanced development involving family-run farms, which currently account for about 30% of output [6]. - The number of breeding sows is crucial for determining pig output, and adjustments to the target breeding sow population are recommended to align with market conditions [7][8].