瑞银专家电话会：中美脑机接口技术差距有望在两年内显著缩小

Core Insights - The core conclusion from UBS's recent expert conference on brain-computer interface (BCI) commercialization is that while China currently lags the US by about two years in core BCI technology, this gap is expected to significantly narrow within the next two years [1][2]. Technology Gap - Chinese companies are approximately two years behind US counterparts like Neuralink in BCI technology, particularly in hardware and algorithms [2]. - In terms of electrode technology, US devices are more advanced, with Neuralink achieving up to 1024 channels compared to China's typical range of 128 to 256 channels. However, China is expected to achieve mass production of flexible micro-nano/cortex electrodes within 3 to 5 years [2]. - Chinese firms primarily rely on imported chips for BCI applications, which meet clinical needs but are limited by demand rather than technology. The cost of developing chips in-house is high, and current demand does not justify mass production [2]. Commercialization Timeline - Non-invasive BCI products are expected to lead the market, with applications in rehabilitation, mental health assessment, and sleep monitoring. More products are anticipated to launch within the next 6 to 12 months [3]. - Semi-invasive products, which include traditional electrocorticography (ECoG) and flexible ECoG, are projected to be available in 1 to 2 years [3]. - Invasive products, aimed at applications like external robotic control and sensory restoration, are expected to be introduced in 2 to 3 years [3]. Market Size - The BCI market in China is projected to experience exponential growth, potentially reaching hundreds of billions of RMB by 2030, driven by product maturity and expanded application scenarios [4]. Product Pricing - Non-invasive products are widely applicable, with pricing for sleep monitoring devices around 10,000 RMB per unit, while rehabilitation and mental health products range from 200,000 to 400,000 RMB. Exoskeleton-related products may cost several million RMB [5]. - Pricing for semi-invasive and invasive products will be influenced by current deep brain stimulation (DBS) devices, with DBS electrodes priced around 10,000 RMB and implanted devices between 200,000 to 300,000 RMB [5]. - The annual number of DBS surgeries in China is stable at approximately 30,000 to 50,000. If semi-invasive and invasive BCI products are priced similarly to DBS devices, their market potential could exceed that of traditional DBS products, providing significant insights for investors [5].