Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) 智通财经网·2026-01-13 03:54Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for the consumer sector, anticipating potential rebounds in 2025 due to policy support and structural opportunities in specific sub-sectors like gold jewelry, beauty care, offline retail, and cross-border e-commerce [1] Group 1: 2025 Market Review - In 2025, the SW retail index increased by 11.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.1 percentage points, as the market adjusted after significant gains in 2024 [2] - The SW beauty care index rose by 0.4%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 17.35 percentage points, with a notable decline in the second half of the year due to a shift in market focus towards technology [2] - The overall consumer sector showed stable fundamentals in 2025, with emerging structural highlights and strong rebound potential supported by clearer consumption-promoting policies [2] Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The new consumption trend is expected to continue into 2026, driven by changes in consumer sentiment among younger demographics and the successful market entry of new consumption companies [3] - Traditional consumption leaders are facing operational challenges but are adapting by innovating and adjusting their retail channels, leading to potential recovery starting from late 2024 [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Gold Jewelry: The sector is entering a peak consumption season with overall valuations at low levels, and companies with strong product offerings are expected to see growth [4] - Beauty Care: The sector is returning to low levels, with traditional leaders showing signs of recovery and new product launches driving growth [4] - Offline Retail: The end of the year marks a sales peak, with potential positive impacts from CPI recovery and ongoing adjustments in supermarket operations [4] - Cross-Border E-commerce: Market sensitivity to external tariffs is decreasing, and leading companies are expected to benefit from the upcoming overseas consumption peak [4]