Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-13 04:09Group 1 - The global lithium metal market is experiencing a significant rebound, with related stocks showing strong price increases, such as Albemarle (ALB.US) up 4.98% and Lithium Argentina AG (LAR.US) up 7.31%, both reaching multi-year highs [1] - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce upgraded the ratings of Albemarle and Lithium Argentina from "in line with the industry" to "outperform," setting target prices at $200 and $7.75 respectively, while also emphasizing that the current rise in lithium prices is just the first round of a prolonged supply tightness cycle [1] - Analyst Ben Isaacson predicts that lithium demand will reach 2.8 million tons by 2030, with a range of 2.5 to 3.2 million tons under different scenarios, and a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14% over the next five years [1] Group 2 - Concerns regarding Albemarle's balance sheet are gradually dissipating, as the company has achieved leverage optimization for four consecutive quarters and is expected to reach positive free cash flow of $300-400 million by the end of 2025 [2] - The stock price of Albemarle is anticipated to see significant upward movement due to the increasing visibility of industry turning points and ongoing self-rescue measures [2] - For Lithium Argentina, the Caucharí project produced 34,100 tons of lithium carbonate in line with guidance, with an operating rate of 85%, and cash operating costs have fallen below $6,000 per ton, ensuring positive free cash flow at any stage of the industry cycle [2] Group 3 - The analyst maintains a "in line with the industry" rating for Lithium Americas (LAC.US), as the company currently has no lithium production or revenue sources, and this situation is unlikely to change in the coming years [3] - The inability of Lithium Americas to benefit from potential future increases in lithium prices raises questions about the justification for a higher rating compared to peers [3]