破64美元后急转直下！美伊冲突引爆原油市场，风险溢价能冲破供应过剩的“天花板”吗？

Group 1 - The core factor driving the recent rise in oil prices is the escalating geopolitical risk between the US and Iran, with potential military actions being considered by President Trump [1] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy transport, with an estimated daily oil transport volume of approximately 13 million barrels, accounting for about 31% of global seaborne oil flow by 2025 [1] - Current oil market conditions indicate a trend towards oversupply, with an estimated surplus of about 2.5 million barrels per day in January, potentially exceeding 3 million barrels per day in February and March [1] Group 2 - The transformation of the global energy supply structure is diminishing the premium that traditional geopolitical risks have on oil prices, as the US shale oil revolution and rapid production increases from emerging oil-producing countries like Brazil and Guyana enhance market resilience [2] - The International Energy Agency projects a potential oversupply of up to 3.84 million barrels per day by 2026, indicating significant expectations of surplus [2] - Current market analysis suggests that the oil market is entering a high-volatility phase characterized by a tug-of-war between geopolitical risks and supply-demand fundamentals, with high global oil inventories and weak demand growth acting as a cap on oil price increases [2]