白银年内上演“过山车”行情？瑞银预警：上半年或冲刺再涨25%，下半年恐回落

Core Viewpoint - UBS significantly raised its price forecasts for silver, platinum, and palladium, predicting a "two halves" market in 2026, with strong price increases in the first half followed by a return to fundamentals and a decline in the second half [1][4]. Price Forecast Adjustments - Silver is expected to rise approximately 25% from current levels, while platinum and palladium have potential increases of 5-6%. However, prices are anticipated to gradually decline by the end of the year [1][9]. - The new price forecasts for silver in 2026 have been raised from $56.0 to $78.8, reflecting a 41% increase. Platinum's forecast increased from $1,500 to $1,925 (28% increase), and palladium's forecast rose from $1,450 to $1,670 (15% increase) [5]. Market Dynamics - The core driver for the price adjustments is the surge in trading activity in the Chinese market, particularly in silver futures, which has exceeded expectations and amplified the impact of market tightness on spot prices [2][12]. - UBS noted that the increase in investor participation has made alternative assets like precious metals more attractive, with gold being the primary beneficiary, although interest is spreading across the entire precious metals sector [12][16]. Supply and Demand Considerations - Despite the upward price adjustments, UBS maintains that the fundamental supply and demand outlook remains unchanged. However, the impact of market tightness and increased investor participation on spot prices has been greater than anticipated [4][10]. - The report highlights that the overall silver inventory in China has been declining since 2020, reflecting weak industrial demand and excess capacity in the solar industry, but an improvement in industrial demand and increased investment interest could trigger a replenishment cycle, potentially driving prices higher [16]. Gold Outlook - UBS reiterated its bullish outlook on gold, expecting further increases in the first half of the year, with a potential upside of about 9% from current levels [3][17]. - The report emphasizes that ongoing political uncertainty and geopolitical risks continue to support gold's appeal as a diversification tool in investment portfolios [20].