Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-01-13 04:42Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities forecasts a significant increase in the net profit of listed brokerages for 2025, with a projected non-recurring net profit of 216.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 55% [1]. Group 1: Brokerage Performance - The average daily trading volume for stock funds in 2025 is expected to reach 2.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70%, with a daily margin balance of 2.08 trillion yuan, up 33% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2025, the average daily trading volume for stock funds is projected at 2.43 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2% [1]. - The brokerage and credit income for 2025 is expected to be 158.9 billion yuan and 50.3 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 50% and 43% [1]. Group 2: Investment Banking - In 2025, the total funds raised through A-share IPOs and refinancing (excluding the four major banks) are expected to be 130.8 billion yuan and 417.7 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 97% and 69% [2]. - The bond underwriting volume is projected to reach 27.13 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13% [2]. - For Q4 2025, the investment banking income is expected to be 138 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 44% [2]. Group 3: Asset Management - By the end of 2025, the net value of non-monetary funds is expected to reach 22.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 18% from the beginning of the year [2]. - The net value of ETFs is projected to be 6.02 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 61% [2]. - The asset management income for 2025 is expected to be 45.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3% [2]. Group 4: Proprietary Trading - The proprietary trading income for 2025 is expected to be 234.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 35% [3]. - For Q4 2025, the proprietary trading income is projected at 47.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 37% [3]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The report highlights a bullish sentiment in the brokerage sector, emphasizing the importance of the sector's call option attributes and recommending a strong hold on investments [4]. - The trading volume has significantly increased at the beginning of the year, with the total A-share trading volume rising from 2.58 trillion yuan to 3.64 trillion yuan within a week [4]. - Regulatory policies in the securities industry are showing signs of warming, with new leadership potentially leading to a more favorable environment for profitability [4].