邓正红能源软实力：地缘推动油价向上震荡 黑箱溢价与规则主导的软实力策略

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that the geopolitical situation in Iran is causing investor concerns over potential supply disruptions, leading to an increase in oil prices as a reflection of risk premiums in the market [1][2] - The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose by $0.38 to $59.50 per barrel, marking a 0.64% increase, while Brent crude oil increased by $0.53 to $63.87 per barrel, a rise of 0.84% [1] - The U.S. government's threats against Iran, including potential military action, have heightened fears of supply interruptions, particularly in the context of the ongoing protests within Iran [1][2] Group 2 - The concept of "political black box premium" is introduced, indicating that the market is transforming the risk of supply disruptions from Iran into a risk premium due to geopolitical tensions [2] - Venezuela's uncertain supply outlook is contributing to a structural premium in the market, as its crude oil exports continue to decline, and the U.S. plans to release millions of barrels into the global market [2] - The soft power strategy of the Trump administration is influencing global energy dynamics, with unilateral sanctions and legal actions aimed at controlling energy discourse and pricing [3] Group 3 - The future of the oil market is expected to focus on the balance between "rule power" and "material power," with soft power becoming a critical variable in determining market discourse [3] - Investors are advised to monitor the evolution of U.S. sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, as well as the security of key maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz [3]