TMGM外汇平台：美国12月通胀或将小幅回升

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. inflation trend is under scrutiny as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a temporary rebound in December, primarily due to statistical adjustments rather than a new wave of inflation [1][3] - The November CPI data was significantly affected by a 43-day government shutdown, leading to distortions in the statistics, particularly in housing-related components like rent [1][3] - Economists anticipate that the technical and seasonal factors impacting inflation will gradually dissipate in the December data, as real sampling resumed in late November [1][3] Group 2 - A Reuters survey indicates that the December CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, remaining consistent with November [3][4] - Market expectations suggest that commodity prices will be the main contributor to the inflation rebound in December, with higher probabilities of price increases in new cars, furniture, and clothing after the holiday promotions [3][4] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has indicated that the impact of the carry-forward imputation method used for rent calculations will not be fully corrected until April 2026 [3][4] Group 3 - Some economists believe that inflationary pressures have not disappeared, as tariff costs are increasingly being passed on to end prices, a trend that existed before the government shutdown [4] - The rebound in commodity prices is expected to outpace that of the service sector, with service prices, particularly in accommodation and airfare, also anticipated to rise in December [4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is projected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month in December, with a year-over-year increase potentially rising to 2.7% [4]