Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant surge in January 2026, with gold and silver prices breaking historical peaks, driven by increased risk aversion amid rising policy uncertainty from the Federal Reserve and geopolitical risks [1][4]. Market Performance - On January 12, 2026, spot gold reached a milestone of $4,600 per ounce, with a daily increase of up to 2%, while spot silver surged nearly 5% to surpass $84 per ounce, both hitting historical highs [3]. - The domestic market mirrored this excitement, with the Shanghai silver futures contract hitting the daily limit with an increase of over 11%, and Shanghai gold rising more than 2% to a historical high of 1,031.30 yuan per gram [3]. - Silver's performance was particularly notable, with a monthly increase of 44.74%, and the Guotou Silver LOF seeing an annual increase of over 8%, with circulating shares reaching a record high of 3.139 billion [3]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The escalation of internal conflicts within the Federal Reserve was a key driver of the risk aversion trade, highlighted by Chairman Powell's confirmation of a subpoena related to potential misuse of funds in a renovation project, which has raised concerns about the independence of monetary policy [4]. - The internal policy divisions within the Fed have become pronounced, with a notable split in the December 2025 meeting where 9 members supported a 25 basis point rate cut while 3 opposed it, marking the most significant decision split since 2019 [4]. Market Reactions - The surge in policy uncertainty has led to a re-evaluation of market pricing, prompting a flow of funds into gold and silver assets as the Fed's turmoil raises doubts about future policy directions [5]. - The U.S. dollar index weakened rapidly, and the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries declined, while gold and silver emerged as safe-haven assets, supported by disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data that fell short of expectations [5]. - In the first week of January, gold ETFs saw accelerated inflows, with net subscriptions exceeding 400 million shares, and global gold ETF assets under management surpassing $350 billion, the highest level since 2020 [5]. Diverging Market Sentiment - There is a clear divide in market sentiment regarding the sustainability of the gold and silver price surge, with optimistic views suggesting continued upward potential due to persistent policy uncertainty and geopolitical risks [6]. - UBS has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $5,000 per ounce, while Bank of America predicts silver prices could soar to a range of $135 to $309 per ounce [7]. - Cautious perspectives highlight potential short-term pullback risks, with warnings from UBS about the possibility of profit-taking following rapid price increases and the potential for volatility due to regulatory measures [7]. Key Variables Influencing Future Trends - The progress of Powell's criminal investigation will significantly impact the trajectory of policy uncertainty, potentially exacerbating market risk aversion [8]. - Upcoming Federal Reserve meetings and U.S. inflation data will reshape interest rate expectations, while the flow of funds into gold ETFs and central bank purchases will influence the support for gold and silver prices [8]. - Global geopolitical developments and industrial demand, particularly for silver in sectors like photovoltaics and AI, will also play crucial roles in shaping market trends [8].
STARTRADER ：黄金白银齐破历史新高 美联储风波点燃避险潮
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2026-01-13 05:48