“高市交易”卷土重来！日股创新高、债汇双杀

Core Viewpoint - The return of "high market trading" in Japan's financial market is driven by Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's intention to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold early elections, leading to a significant rise in the Nikkei 225 index and a decline in Japanese government bonds [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 3%, reaching a historical high following the announcement of early elections [1]. - Japanese government bonds experienced a sharp decline, with the 10-year bond yield rising to its highest level since February 1999, and the 20-year bond yield hitting a historical peak [1][5]. - The Japanese yen fell to 158.91 against the US dollar, marking its lowest level since July 2024 [1][9]. Group 2: Economic Implications - If Prime Minister Takashi secures a stronger mandate in the early elections, it could reinforce his expansionary fiscal stance and preference for loose monetary policy, which has boosted the stock market but raised concerns about Japan's debt sustainability [4][5]. - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 200%, making it one of the most indebted developed countries, which has led to investor anxiety regarding future fiscal discipline [8]. Group 3: Currency and Intervention Concerns - The yen has become the worst-performing currency among G10 currencies due to political instability and the widening US-Japan interest rate differential [9]. - Japanese officials, including Finance Minister Katsuyuki Kitagawa, have expressed concerns over the yen's unilateral depreciation and indicated a willingness to intervene in the market if necessary [12]. - Market analysts are closely monitoring the potential for government intervention to support the yen amid ongoing capital outflows and negative real interest rates [12].