Ge Long Hui·2026-01-13 06:34Group 1: Market Dynamics - A surge in lithium carbonate prices has been observed, with the main futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hitting a limit up of 11.99%, reaching 174,060 yuan/ton, marking a cumulative increase of over 40% this month alone [1] - Since the low point of nearly 60,000 yuan in June 2025, lithium prices have skyrocketed by over 190% [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - The lithium battery sector in both Hong Kong and A-shares has shown strong performance, with Ganfeng Lithium rising over 7%, and other companies like Shengxin Lithium Energy and Tibet Mining increasing by over 5% [3][4] Group 3: Policy Impact - Recent adjustments to export tax policies for photovoltaic and battery products have triggered a "rush for lithium," as companies anticipate increased costs due to the phased reduction of export tax rates starting in 2026 [5][6] - The export tax rate for battery products will decrease from 9% to 6% in April 2026, ultimately being eliminated by 2027 [5] Group 4: Supply Chain Reactions - The policy changes have led downstream battery manufacturers to accelerate their procurement plans to avoid rising costs, resulting in a concentrated rush for lithium supplies [6] - Current market prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate have reached 158,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade has surpassed 153,000 yuan/ton [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts expect that the reduction in export tax rates will stimulate demand and lead to a strong performance in lithium prices, with a potential tightening of supply and demand dynamics throughout the year [8] - The ongoing "rush for exports" is anticipated to continue until the elimination of the export tax in 2027, which may lead to a concentrated release of demand in the short term [8][9]