Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a surge in the lithium carbonate market driven by policy changes, leading to a significant price increase during the traditional off-season [1][5] - On January 13, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit the daily limit, rising by 11.99% to 174,060 yuan per ton, marking a cumulative increase of over 40% this month [1] - Since the low point of nearly 60,000 yuan in June 2025, lithium prices have surged by over 190% [1] Group 2 - The lithium battery sector in both Hong Kong and A-shares has shown strong performance, with companies like Ganfeng Lithium rising over 7% and Tianqi Lithium over 3% [3][4] - The recent adjustment in export tax policies for photovoltaic and battery products has triggered a "rush for lithium," as companies aim to stock up before costs rise due to the phased reduction of export tax rates starting in 2026 [5][6] - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has reached 158,000 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade has surpassed 153,000 yuan per ton, indicating strong demand from downstream customers [6] Group 3 - Analysts expect that the reduction in export tax rates will stimulate a rush for exports, reinforcing demand expectations and leading to a strong performance in lithium prices [9] - The market is anticipated to experience a tight supply-demand balance throughout the year, with lithium prices likely to rise further [9] - The timing of the export tax adjustment is seen as appropriate, as it may help balance supply and demand in the second half of the year [10]