Ge Long Hui·2026-01-13 06:56Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a surge in lithium carbonate prices driven by policy changes, leading to a "crazy market" during the traditional off-season [1] - As of January 13, the main contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hit a limit-up price of 174,060 yuan/ton, marking an increase of 11.99% and over 40% rise in January alone [1][2] - Since the low point of nearly 60,000 yuan in June 2025, lithium prices have surged over 190% [1] Group 2 - The recent adjustment in export tax policies for photovoltaic products has triggered a "rush for lithium," as companies accelerate procurement to avoid rising costs [4] - The average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate has reached 158,000 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade has surpassed 153,000 yuan/ton [4] - Downstream companies are actively seeking lithium supplies, with reports of high demand and low inventory levels among suppliers [4] Group 3 - Analysts expect that the reduction in export tax rates will stimulate export demand, leading to a strong market for lithium carbonate in the short term [6] - The overall supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate may tighten throughout the year, with prices expected to rise further [6] - The cancellation of export tax for battery products by 2027 is anticipated to maintain ongoing demand for lithium carbonate [7] Group 4 - The timing of the export tax adjustment is seen as appropriate, as the demand for lithium batteries in the first quarter of 2026 is projected to be only 18% of the annual total [7] - The adjustment may help align export prices with market supply and demand, reducing the perception of subsidizing overseas consumers [7] - Future adjustments to export tax policies may extend to other high-export products, including chemicals and machinery [7][8]