今晚九点半美国CPI前瞻：通胀恐显“粘性”迹象！美联储1月降息希望渺茫？

Core Insights - The upcoming December CPI data is expected to show persistent inflation pressures, with overall CPI projected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, while core CPI is also expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year [1][4] Group 1: Economic Context - The Cleveland Fed's Nowcast model predicts a slightly lower core CPI growth of 0.22%, but the mainstream view on Wall Street suggests inflation has not significantly cooled [4] - The government shutdown last year has complicated data interpretation, as some data collection was disrupted, leading to potential upward bias in December's data due to comparisons with earlier prices [5] - November data may have been artificially depressed due to early holiday promotions, with expectations of a mechanical rebound in December core prices as these effects fade [6] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Market expectations indicate a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January, supported by stable labor market indicators [7] - The absence of a sharp deterioration in the labor market suggests the Fed is unlikely to rush into rate cuts while inflation remains close to 3% [7] - Political pressures may also influence the Fed's cautious stance, as there are concerns about potential investigations into Fed Chair Powell by the Trump administration [7] Group 3: Long-term Inflation Outlook - Companies are planning to pass on tariff-related cost increases to consumers starting in early 2026, which could trigger a new wave of price increases [8] - Shelter inflation remains the largest component of CPI, and if it does not decrease as expected, it will continue to support high core inflation levels [8] Group 4: Market Reactions - Despite potential inflation data being slightly above expectations, the investment community's reaction has been relatively muted, with a prevailing sentiment of a "soft landing" for the economy [9] - The December CPI report is likely to confirm the challenges of achieving the final stages of inflation reduction, with various factors contributing to the Fed's patience in resuming rate cuts, potentially delaying until mid-2026 [9]