马云预言或应验？如果不出意外，2026年房地产将面临4大转折

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has entered a period of adjustment since 2022, with average national housing prices dropping over 30%, and certain cities experiencing declines of up to 60% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The prediction made by Jack Ma regarding housing prices becoming "like green onions" is becoming a reality in some third and fourth-tier cities, with major cities also trending towards this direction [3]. - By 2026, the real estate market is expected to face four major turning points, including price differentiation where some cities will experience further declines [5]. - Smaller cities, particularly around Beijing, have seen significant price drops, while core areas in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen remain relatively stable [5]. Group 2: Price Dynamics - First-tier cities are likely to experience a "correction" in housing prices, moving from suburban areas to older properties and eventually to core areas [5]. - The price-to-income ratio in first-tier cities is around 40, indicating a significant housing price bubble that is expected to correct over time [5]. - Factors contributing to this correction include stagnant or declining income levels and a loss of investment appeal in the housing market [5]. Group 3: Consumer Preferences - There is a growing demand for the cancellation of pre-sale housing, with consumers preferring to buy completed homes to ensure quality and avoid issues like unfinished buildings [7]. - By 2026, consumers will have the option to purchase existing homes, allowing them to verify quality and layout before making a purchase [7]. Group 4: Development Standards - The real estate industry is shifting from a "rough development stage" to a focus on building quality homes that meet consumer expectations [8]. - Developers are expected to improve the quality, layout, and amenities of new homes in response to consumer demands and regulatory guidance [8]. Group 5: Common Area Charges - There is an increasing call to eliminate shared area calculations in property sales, as consumers often pay for more space than they actually receive [10]. - Some cities have already begun to calculate property prices based on usable area, which significantly reduces costs for buyers and eliminates additional fees associated with shared spaces [10]. - The trend towards eliminating shared area calculations is expected to grow, with more cities adopting this practice by 2026 [10].