复杂经济金融形势下保险资产负债管理与逆周期调节研究

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant challenges and changes faced by the Chinese insurance industry due to complex economic and financial conditions, emphasizing the need for improved asset-liability management and regulatory measures to ensure sustainable development [2][20]. Economic and Financial Context - The current global and domestic economic landscape is marked by geopolitical conflicts, trade wars, and macroeconomic policy adjustments, leading to increased financial pressure on China [2]. - Internal factors such as population aging, declining capital formation, and rising debt levels contribute to a downward trend in potential economic growth [2]. - The insurance industry faces challenges including insufficient effective demand, rising debt risks, and deflationary pressures, exacerbated by the impacts of the pandemic and real estate adjustments [2][6]. Asset-Liability Management Issues - There is a widespread recognition among Chinese insurance institutions of the importance of asset-liability management, which involves managing interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks [3]. - The industry has historically struggled with duration mismatches between assets and liabilities, leading to significant potential interest rate risk [3][8]. - Recent regulatory measures have aimed to enhance the standardization and professionalism of asset-liability management within the insurance sector [3][5]. Current Challenges and Future Directions - The insurance industry is experiencing intensified competition, with some companies adopting aggressive asset-driven liability strategies, which have led to increased risks [8]. - The need for a clear definition of leading insurance products is highlighted, with a focus on developing pension annuities and health insurance to better match liabilities [8][20]. - The article suggests that improving asset-liability management could involve increasing the proportion of floating return products and diversifying fixed-income asset investments [9][20]. Empirical Analysis of Asset-Liability Management - The analysis indicates that the insurance industry exhibits pro-cyclical behavior, with net asset growth rates closely tied to economic growth rates and financial cycles [10][12]. - The study found that higher leverage in insurance companies correlates with lower net asset growth rates, particularly in life insurance companies [12][13]. - The impact of interest rates on the development of the insurance industry is significant, with life insurance companies being more sensitive to financial cycles compared to property insurance companies [13][14]. Policy Recommendations - The article recommends that national policies should focus on enhancing fiscal support for the economy and adjusting government debt durations to improve the insurance industry's resilience [20][22]. - Insurance institutions are encouraged to develop more protection-oriented products to reduce reliance on interest rate spreads and enhance asset-liability linkage [20][22]. - Regulatory measures should include dynamic adjustments of guaranteed interest rates in line with market rates and increased support for capital replenishment to maintain solvency [20][22].