政府停摆扰动消退，美国核心通胀或回到2.7%，回升才刚开始？

Core Insights - The upcoming CPI data is expected to show resilience in inflation trends, potentially marking the end of the previous slowdown in price growth [1][3] - The consensus forecast for December's overall CPI and core CPI is a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, with core CPI slightly accelerating from 2.6% [1][3] Inflation Data and Market Expectations - The sticky nature of inflation supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in the short term, with a low probability of rate cuts in the near future [3][12] - Analysts suggest that the unexpected decline in November's inflation data was largely influenced by technical factors, and December's data will reflect the true price levels after these distortions are removed [3][9] Monthly Data Recovery - Key focus for December's CPI data is the recovery in month-over-month growth rates, with estimates for both overall and core inflation indices expected to rise to 0.3% from November's 0.2% [4][6] - Some economists predict that core inflation may show even stronger monthly performance, potentially reaching 0.4% [4][6] Statistical Biases from Government Shutdown - The potential strength in December's data is attributed to the reversal of the "shutdown effect," which previously hindered data collection [9][10] - Two significant statistical biases from the government shutdown are identified: dual-month sampling bias and holiday discount bias, which affected November's data [10][11] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Economists anticipate noticeable rebounds in prices for hotels, airfare, and clothing, with core goods and services inflation expected to accelerate [11] - However, some analysts predict only moderate increases in owner’s equivalent rent (OER), which could help control December's inflation figures [11] Future Inflation Pressures - Inflation pressures are shifting from service-related costs to tariff-related costs, with companies increasingly looking to pass on rising input costs to consumers [11][12] - Concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on inflation are highlighted, with expectations of price increases in early 2026 [12] Federal Reserve Policy and Independence Concerns - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains in a precarious state, with inflation consistently above the 2% target [13] - There are concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly in light of recent legal actions against its chairman [13] Market Reaction Predictions - Predictions for the upcoming CPI data suggest varying impacts on the S&P 500 index based on core CPI month-over-month rates, with different probabilities assigned to potential market movements [14][15] - The foreign exchange market is closely monitoring the data, especially the USD/JPY currency pair, which typically reacts strongly to U.S. data releases [15][18]