Ge Long Hui·2026-01-13 08:33Core Insights - The global semiconductor industry underwent significant changes in 2025, transitioning from chaos to order and from divergence to consensus, driven by macroeconomic policies and the rise of artificial intelligence [1] - The A-share semiconductor sector experienced a recovery trajectory throughout the year, culminating in a strong performance in the second half [1] - The Kexin Chip ETF (588200) emerged as the largest product in the semiconductor theme, achieving a return of 154.35% since its listing, with an annualized yield of 34.88% [1] Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is at a critical juncture, with AI transitioning from training to inference and domestic substitution moving into deeper waters [1][28] - The Kexin Chip Index has shown a cumulative increase of 69.94% since April 8, 2025, outperforming other semiconductor indices [4] - The market sentiment shifted positively towards semiconductor stocks, with 54% of tracked A-share semiconductor companies achieving record quarterly revenues in 2025 [6][12] Market Performance - The Kexin Chip ETF (588200) has seen significant inflows, with a net inflow of 3.18 billion yuan in 2025 and an average daily trading volume of 2.6 billion yuan [2][24] - The index's constituent stocks demonstrated impressive growth, with a 39% year-on-year revenue increase and a 94% rise in net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 [22] - The semiconductor market is expected to experience double-digit growth for three consecutive years, driven by AI infrastructure and traditional chip demand recovery [14] Investment Opportunities - The Kexin Chip ETF (588200) provides a convenient way to invest in core assets of the semiconductor industry, covering the entire supply chain from design to manufacturing [18][21] - The ETF's liquidity and strong market recognition make it an attractive option for both institutional and individual investors [24][25] - The underlying assets of the ETF include leading companies in the semiconductor sector, such as SMIC and Cambrian, which are positioned to benefit from ongoing industry trends [19][30] Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is poised for growth, with domestic companies benefiting from increased production capacity and innovation in AI applications [28][30] - The Kexin Chip Index is expected to maintain its status as one of the most growth-oriented indices in the A-share market, capitalizing on trends in AI computing and domestic substitution [30][31]