日本12次大选10次涨，高市早苗这一次还灵吗？

Core Viewpoint - The potential early election announced by Prime Minister Sanna Takashi is testing a market trend that has persisted for over 30 years, with historical data indicating that the Topix index has risen in 10 out of 12 elections since 1990 during the period from the dissolution of the Diet to the election [1][2]. Group 1: Election Impact on Market - Historical data shows that during the 12 elections since 1990, the Topix index recorded gains in 10 instances from the dissolution of the Diet to the election period [2]. - If Takashi wins the election, expectations for stable economic policies may rise, potentially leading to a market increase of about 30% for the Nikkei 225 index by September [2]. - In previous elections where the ruling party won a majority, significant market increases were observed six months later, with gains of 44%, 70%, and 18% in 2005, 2012, and 2014 respectively [2]. Group 2: Political Uncertainty and Risks - Despite historical trends, there is a possibility that gains may not be sustained, as six out of the 12 elections saw a reversal in market performance six months later [3]. - Concerns have been raised regarding the potential for political instability, as the ruling coalition holds a slim majority in the House of Representatives and lacks an advantage in the House of Councillors [3]. - The early election may lead to criticism regarding prioritizing political stability over policy implementation, and there are worries that the ruling party's seat gains may be disappointing [3]. Group 3: Fiscal Cliff Concerns - The early election could delay the approval of a debt issuance bill necessary for funding budget deficits, raising concerns about a potential "fiscal cliff" scenario similar to that faced by the U.S. [4][5]. - If the debt bill is not passed in time, the government may lack sufficient funds to support a record budget of 783 billion USD, with 22.9 trillion yen allocated for deficit financing [5]. - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds reached a 27-year high, reflecting market expectations that the early election may empower Takashi to implement aggressive fiscal stimulus measures [5][6]. Group 4: Debt Pressure and Market Sentiment - Japan's debt is twice the size of its economy, the highest among major economies, with debt financing costs currently accounting for over a quarter of total government spending [6]. - As the Bank of Japan raises interest rates, the cost of debt financing may further increase, adding pressure to the bond market amid political uncertainty [6]. - While historical trends may provide short-term optimism, uncertainties surrounding budget approvals, debt bill passage, and policy implementation delays could significantly impact mid-term market performance [6].